With three QBs going in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, it got me thinking again about what a fucking crapshoot it is to pick a quarterback in the first round. Quarterback is the most important position in football, if not all of sports, which is why GMs take a chance and then pray that the QB they draft will save their jobs. After seeing more than a few busts in the first round in the past decade, it's time to re-examine the 2004 NFL Draft (ok, I'm really only talking about the first round) and how great those Quarterbacks turned out.
First of all, fun fact: There were four QBs taken in the first round. Eli Manning went No.1, Phillip Rivers went No. 4, Ben Roethlisberger went No.11 and....the Bills took fucking JP Losman at No. 22. Traded up to get him too. Moves like that are why they haven't been to the playoffs since 1999. (They also took EJ Manuel at No. 16 in the 2013 draft, the only QB taken in the first round.)
The first point of debate is: are Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rivers better than Elway, Marino and Kelly? I say yes. I don't feel like getting into a bar room debate, so if you disagree with me here, just take a second and fuck off. The main reason I think 2004 was better than 1983? In '83 SIX QBs were taken in the first round. The other three were Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien. Also, the top 3 QBs in 2004 panned out with JP Losman sucking at the back end. In 1983 this was the draft order:
No.1 - Elway
No.7 - Blackledge
No.14 - Kelly
No. 15 - Eason
No. 24 - O'Brien
No. 27 - Marino
This was when there were only 28 teams, so it's nuts to think that Marino was taken with the 2nd to last pick in the first round. Teams whiffed while others scored. Class of 2004 had a 75% success rate for teams that picked a QB in Round 1, 1983 only had a 50% success rate.
So what's my fucking point? It's this: Despite being paid to evaluate talent, NO ONE has a fucking clue when it comes to selecting a quarterback and how they'll do in the NFL. The 1st round just magnifies the cost and investment. Let's look at the drafts from 2002 - 2010 (2002 because that's the first year there were 32 picks in the 1st round) and the QBs taken in the first round. I'll also use a binary subjective term to say either the QB was a success or wasn't to see what the success rate is for taking QBs in the first round. This will be denoted by 'Y' for success, 'N' for fail:
2002
No. 1 David Carr (Y - giving him a pass since any QB would've had a tough time here)
No. 3 Joey Harrington (N)
No. 32 Patrick Ramsey (N)
Success rate: 33%
2003
No. 1 Carson Palmer (Y)
No. 7 Byron Leftwich (N)
No. 19 Kyle Boller (N)
No. 22 Rex Grossman (N)
Success rate: 25%
2004
No. 1 Eli Manning (Y)
No. 4 Phillip Rivers (Y)
No. 11 Ben Roethlisberger (Y)
No. 22 JP Losman (N)
Success rate: 75%
2005
No. 1 Alex Smith (N - didn't perform well for the team that drafted him)
No. 24 Aaron Rodgers (Y)
No. 25 Jason Campbell (N)
Success rate: 33%
2006
No. 3 Vince Young (N)
No. 10 Matt Leinhart (N)
No. 11 Jay Cutler (Y - people forget Cutler was good in Denver until that dickhead Josh McDaniels tried to trade for Matt Cassel - LOL - and pissed off Cutler so much that he wanted out.)
Success rate: 33%
2007
No. 1 JaMarcus Russell (Fuck No)
No. 22 Brady Quinn (N - Browns selections should be exempt from this list)
Success rate: 0%
2008
No. 3 Matt Ryan (Y)
No. 18 Joe Flacco (Y)
Success rate: 100%
2009
No. 1 Matt Stafford (Y)
No. 5 Mark Sanchez (N)
No. 17 Josh Freeman (N)
Success rate: 33%
2010
No. 1 Sam Bradford (N - Success for a first rounder isn't becoming a journeyman)
No. 25 Tim Tebow (N - but he hit a HR in his first at bat with a Mets minor league A ball club, so that's saying something)
Success Rate: 0%
When you see the list of names taken in the first round, 2004 really stands out as a phenomenal year that wasn't appreciated at the time, and rightfully so - you can't judge drafts until these guys get some years in the league.
Adding the cumulative total we get a success rate of 38.4%. That's not good. If history tells us anything, it's that between Trubisky, Mahommes, and Watson, only one, if any will be a good QB. I'm not high on any of these guys, but then again, I wasn't on Mariota or Winston either, and both are showing promise which just reinforces the fact that no one knows shit about selecting QBs even when you're a highly paid NFL executive. So with such a shitty success rate, why do GMs continue to risk first rounders on QBs? It's simple: If you're in that 38.4%, you've found your franchise QB for the next 10-15 years and the most important position on your team won't be a variable, you'll look like a genius, and you get some extra job security. That's why GMs continue to play QB roulette in the first round of the NFL draft.
And just to reinforce the fact that scouting NFL talent is one of the toughest things in the business, here's a video of JJ Watt, All-World Defensive End, reading his pre-draft scouting report:
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